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劉光鳳 ， 羅巧巧 ，周   直

 

（ 重慶交通大學 經濟與管理學院 ，重慶 400074)

摘   要 ：針對 PPP 模式下居住建筑節能改造項目投資風險評價問題 ，建立環境風險 、合規性風險 、管理風  險 、融資風險 、建設風險和運營風險六個方面的投資風險評價指標體系 ，采用層次分析法確定風險因素權重， 通過專家問卷調查獲取風險等級評價矩陣 ，運用集對勢分析風險態勢 ，運用偏聯系數理論預測風險發生趨勢， 構建基于五元聯系數的 PPP 模式下居住建筑節能改造項目投資風險評價模型 ，并結合哈爾濱市 PPP 模式居住建  筑節能改造項目進行實證分析。結果表明：該評價模型能實現 PPP 模式下居住建筑節能改造項目投資風險靜態  評價與動態分析的有效結合 ，為社會資本方投資風險管理提供參考。

關鍵詞：PPP;  建筑節能改造 ；集對分析 ；風險評價

中圖分類號：TU984. 12           

文獻標志碼：A            

文章編號： 1005- 8249   (2024)  05- 0135- 06

DOI:10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005 - 8249.2024.05 .025

 

LIU Guangfeng ,  LUO Qiaoqiao ,  ZHOU Zhi

(School of Economics and Management ,  Chongqing Jiaotong University ,  Chongqing 400074 ,  China)   

Abstract: In view of the investment risk evaluation of PPP mode residential building energy-saving renovation project, an investment risk evaluation index system in six aspects of environment risk, compliance risk, management risk, financing risk, construction risk and operation risk was established, the weight of Risk factor was determined by the analytic hierarchy process, the risk rating evaluation matrix was obtained by expert questionnaire, the static risk situation was analyzed by the set pair potential, and the risk occurrence trend was analyzed by the partial coefficient theory, This paper constructs an investment risk evaluation model of PPP mode residential building energy-saving renovation project based on the five yuan connection number, and conducts an empirical analysis with a PPP residential building energy-saving renovation project in Harbin. The research results indicate that the investment risk of this project is high, which is consistent with the actual engineering situation. This evaluation model can effectively combine static evaluation and dynamic analysis of investment risks in PPP mode residential building energy-saving renovation projects, providing reference for social capital to manage investment risks.

Keywords:PPP; building energy-saving renovation; set pair analysis; risk evaluation

*基金項目：重慶市教育科學規劃青年課題  “重慶高校工程 倫理教育的關鍵機制及對策研究 ”(K22YY207694) 。

作者簡介：劉光鳳  (1987—) , 女，博士，講師，研究方向： 工程管理 、風險管理 、招投標管理。

通信作者： 羅巧巧  (1999—) , 女，碩士研究生，研究方向： 工程項目管理和風險管理。

收稿日期：2023- 07- 15